Saturday 24 March 2012

An update on the Twitter Hashtags

Check out 5 down...
A few months ago, I started this blog largely to explain the reasons behind the Super League Twitter hashtags. Since then, I've gone on to write a number of blogs although admittedly far more of them have been about the Widnes situation than I would have hoped. Anyway, putting that on the back burner for the time being (we'll see what happens on Sunday...), I thought it would be worthwhile outlining what has since happened with the hashtags.

When we first discussed the use of Twitter hashtags for Rugby League games, it was met with a good amount of scepticism, ranging from friendly criticism like this:

Don't get why we can't all just stick to #rugbyleague but there ya go! (Bilko RLfans)


To more vitrolic criticism like this:

Can't you all just learn about social media? Your hashtags will never trend, we just don't have the numbers to do it! They're too specific to games, not to the sport, which is where the problem comes in. I've been saying it for the last year since this stupid idea came up.


Just stick to #rugbyleague, #superleague or even mention the club names as proper words, you've got way more chance doing it this way than wasting your time with those awful hashtags. (Paul124897 RLFans)



This was to be somewhat expected from Rugby League fans, but hopefully we have changed some of these opinions.

What has happened with the hashtags since?


Positive signs


Naturally, there have been ups and downs, but there have certainly been some huge positives. None more so than the fact that the game specific hashtags have trended on 3 occasions. The first game of the season briefly trended; the Leeds-Warrington game was trending for a long time and last night's Wigan-Warrington game was also trending. This is great news and evidence that the hashtags are creating increased opportunities for the sport to trend nationally. Yesterday's game was up against Sport Relief which was dominating most of the top 10 list, making it all the more impressive. 


Perhaps equally satisfying, is how quickly the hashtags have become accepted during regular games. The tags were originally trialled during two playoff encounters at the end of the year. The first game did well and there were around 400 tweets during the game; the second game had much fewer despite being a Saints-Wigan derby. Tonight's game was the first where I have checked the number of tweets since then and it was over 1,000 during the game. Many of the people tweeting are those that were originally sceptical and openly hostile. This suggests that the second main benefit; that of making the game easier to follow on Twitter, is also working.

The continued driving force behind their use seems to have been some of the clubs and official accounts. After the opening Widnes game, for reasons I will explain later, the use of hashtags fell off somewhat but still some avenues continued to use them. Notable mentions include @WiganWarriorsRL and @thechemics, who both use the hashtags when updating their games. This helps to give credibility to the campaign.

Current issues and moving forward


Some that have followed the campaign will be aware of the frustration that we have had with the official Rugby League bodies. For instance, originally, the campaign was a purely fan driven initiative and it was the fans that got many clubs, players and journalists on board with it. However, the Grand Final tags were thrown into chaos when the official Super League account released its own version just a couple of hours before the final.

A similar event occurred prior to the beginning of this season, when the official account released a set of hashtags for all games, but it was quickly decided that we would adopt their hashtag system rather than continue with our own slightly different version. However, since then the official account has not only stopped releasing the official hashtags but they also don't use them in their own tweets related to the games. This led to a dropping off of their usage and until the Wigan game in which they trending, I suspected the campaign had stalled. This is in direct contrast to how the official accounts in Australia act about it. If the Super League account used them often, it would encourage the other official club accounts to use them and increase their usage.

Obviously, we can't complain when the games are trending but things could be improved still and we could continue to get more people to use them. Currently, in 2 of the 3 games where it has trended, it has quickly dropped off the top 10 list. Many people are still using the #rugbyleague hashtag as a preference but as I explained in the last blog, this has not trended once and is extremely unlikely to trend. By far the best way to get the hashtags trending would be to get Sky involved. They have improved their coverage this year and even started referring to their official Twitter account during shows, but it would help enormously if they referred to the hashtags as well. If we trended more often and for longer, it would give them more exposure.

So, all in all things have gone well and long may they continue to do so. Hopefully, the next time I comment on them, they will be a regular feature on the top 10 trending lists.

Monday 19 March 2012

Are Widnes undermining the Licensing system?

The Licensing process in trouble? 
Well that was painfully predictable wasn't it?

Just a week after one of the most incredible victories in recent times, Widnes were given a Rugby League lesson by a good Hull side, losing 58-10. This clearly isn't good enough and most fans are very unhappy with the way things are going. Following the game on Twitter, the result created a fair amount of comment from fans of other clubs as well.

Many of the comments were harmless banter, as you'd expect from our rivals, but a number of comments focussed on the way in which we were promoted; Widnes were the first club promoted under the current licensing arrangements. This system promotes clubs based largely on a number of off-the-field criteria and controversially Widnes were promoted despite finishing in a lowly fifth place in last year's Championship.

Our continued poor performances in Super League have led many to not only question our inclusion but also the whole licensing process. Andy Wilson did so a few weeks back on Super League Back Chat but today BBC's George Riley tweeted this,

V worrying for Widnes and the licensing system. 58-0 down to Hull FC #rugbyleague



Are Widnes undermining the Licensing system?


Playing performances
Nobody denies that Widnes have under performed on the pitch so far this season. Despite the victory against Wigan, we have failed to compete in almost all the other games this year. After 7 rounds, only Workington in 1996 had a worse points difference at this stage. It is looking distinctly likely that Widnes are going to finish bottom this year and probably by some distance. However, before this can be blamed on the licensing system you have to examine the situation pre-licensing. Widnes were promoted in 2001 and finished an excellent 7th that year. Here is the record of teams that were promoted after that year:

2003 - Huddersfield. 10th out of 12 with 11 wins.
2004 - Salford. 9th out of 12 with 8 wins.
2005 - Leigh. 12th out of 12 with 2 wins.
2006 - Catalans. 12th out of 12 with 8 wins.
2007 - Hull KR. 11th out of 12 with 8 wins. 
2008 - Castleford. 12th out of 12 with 7 wins.
2009 - Salford. 13th out of 14 with 7 wins.
2009 - Crusaders. 14th out of 14 with 3 wins. 

As you can see, it is a very mixed bag. If you look closer, there is a correlation between teams doing better when they had been relegated the year previous. They used the year as a year of consolidation and often retained a nucleus of the Super League squad. Looking at the teams in bold, they are the clubs that were new to Super League and as you can see many struggled. However, nobody claimed that the promotion and relegation system was under threat when Leigh finished with just 2 victories in 2005.

The closest comparison to Widnes was the promotion of Catalan Dragons in 2006. Although Salford and Crusaders were promoted through a licensing system, they also finished 1st and 2nd that year, making their promotion closer to the example of P & R. Catalans however, were promoted based on off-field criteria and came from the lower standard French leagues. They did surprisingly well and as we all know, finished 3rd just 2 years later.

Widnes are doing badly not because of the licensing system but because of bad coaching and bad recruitment. All clubs that are promoted have to recruit a large number of new players, there is no reason to assume that Featherstone would have recruited better. It is of course ideal if you have a strong nucleus of players and this is a problem that we should have addressed last year; licensing certainly gave us the time to do so. However, Leigh also did poorly in 2002, regardless of their strong nucleus. A higher quality coach with higher quality recruitment would have seen a more competitive side on the pitch this year.

A misunderstanding of the licensing system
Even though we have had this system for 4 years, some people still fail to understand the aims of the licensing system; which is to create as many strong clubs as possible. This is why so much is focussed on off-the-field matters. Successful teams are temporary but successful clubs are not. It's no coincidence that the strongest Super League teams tend to correlate most often with the strongest Super League clubs such as Leeds, Wigan, Warrington and St Helens. These clubs get the most supporters through the gates; have the best youth programmes; make the most money and promote the image of Rugby League the best.

Without licensing, Featherstone would most likely have been promoted instead of Widnes. Without disrespecting that club; as they are well ran, they currently do not have the facilities, finance or attendances to sustain that success at Super League level. Whilst they would have likely had a better crack of it this year than Widnes have, the real test is whether or not they would have been a more successful Super League club after 3 years. Featherstone accepted that they were not ready to attempt this and as such were not involved in the process.

As many fans pointed out on Twitter, the test will be whether or not we are still losing this way in 3 years time. If we have improved considerably and are getting good attendances then the decision will have been vindicated and Super League will be stronger for it. A strong Widnes will be stronger than any other current Championship club. I would like it if we were competing better and I believe that there are steps we should be taking to address it now, but to suggest that our poor performances are a reflection on the licensing process is flawed reasoning.

In 3 years time, we will have no excuses if we are still off the pace, we will very probably be replaced by another club. Then maybe, the decision to promote Widnes can be adequately assessed. However, it would take numerous clubs being promoted before licensing itself could be blamed. Currently, it appears far more likely that Widnes have recruited poorly in the same way Leigh did, rather than being indicative of the whole process.

Monday 12 March 2012

Sometimes it's all about the Positives

Widnes seal an incredible 37-36 victory
Time to eat a slice of humble pie? Not quite, but I'll gladly eat some anyway.

After a week where the coach and the squad faced renewed criticism, Widnes incredibly pulled off a thrilling 37-36 victory over Wigan; a club that were overwhelming favourites and were looking to go top. Anybody that has read this blog over the last couple of weeks will know that I have been vocal in my calling for the sacking of Denis Betts, pointing to the fact that statistically we had been shocking and that Denis has a poor record as a Rugby League head coach.

Has my opinion changed? Not at all. You could therefore, think that today is something of a bittersweet victory for people like myself. After all, anybody that wants to see Betts replaced will now inevitably have to wait longer than if we had been predictably trounced 70-0. Admittedly, this thought has crossed my mind, but I'm much happier to take the victory. Here's why:


Sometimes the positives are far more important

The Fans
Apart from one half against Wakefield, the first 5 weeks back being a Super League fan had been a pretty miserable experience for Widnes fans. As I showed last week, our form was such that it was in the same league as some of the worst ever Super League teams.

Being a fan in such circumstances is not fun. In my opinion, Rugby League is not the sort of sport where you can sit back and enjoy the quality of the opposition; a good attack needs a good defence to be worthwhile. It was starting to look like a distinct possibility that we could go through a large portion of the season without a win. For many Widnes fans, this would have proved unbearable and it would have become harder to justify paying to watch it.

This victory, has rewarded those fans and reminded us exactly why we dreamt of Super League in the first place. It has also provided some much needed optimism and given the die-hard fans something to look forward to next week and moving forward. Perhaps most importantly, it has shown us that we're not looking at a season purely of beatings, that regardless of how low it gets we have the ability in us to spring a shock. This makes it easier to take the beatings. Fans can attend games and remember this game, even if we've lost by 50 the week before, you never know what might happen. Who knows, it might be Warrington that next see this side of Widnes.

The Players
Prior to the season, most pundits had written off the squad that had been assembled; little had happened to change that opinion during the opening weeks. Some players, such as Lloyd White and Willie Isa, had seen a great deal of personal criticism aimed at them. This win, gets a considerable monkey off their backs, and must give them some confidence that they can mix it with the big names of Super League. Also, I'm sure they'll go in training this week in a much more positive mood.

Much has also been made of the missing Widnes players, but I would argue that many of them would struggle to get back into the side when they play like that. The new additions clearly made a difference and this can only be good for creating competition amongst players and building our best side.

The Club 
The bad start had led many people to question the licensing process and especially Widnes's inclusion. It's not going too far to say that many were questioning what we would ever bring to Super League. Anybody that will see the highlights of the game, cannot fail to see a decent sized, passionate crowd going crazy over a victory. It will remind people of the value to Super League of a good Widnes club.

Much more importantly, is that it should stem the tide of Stronghold cancellations. I have no hard evidence to go off but I suspect that the club has lost a fair number of Stronghold memberships already. Yesterday's attendance of 7,357 was OK considering the large numbers brought by Wigan but it would have been much higher had people not been expecting a huge defeat. People are naturally fickle and many will have decided that it's not worth going to watch Widnes lose comfortably every week. This has reminded people why they signed up in the first place and creates the hope that with time the team will improve. Without this win, the season was quickly looking like a lost cause.

Whilst the season may have been rectified by sacking Betts, the situation may have been so dire by then that large swathes of Stronghold memberships had gone. This would have obvious implications for future seasons. On previous form, most fans anticipated that a comfortable loss to London in round 8 would have been the trigger. This would be almost a third of the season and whilst Betts may still face the sack at a later date, this victory may at least encourage Stronghold members to stay on, as they face the possibility of the odd great victory.

Not getting too carried away
Whilst there are tangible positives, it's important that fans don't get too carried away and expect that things have magically changed overnight. Beating Wigan under any circumstances is a significant achievement but it doesn't hide the fact that we still conceded 36 points. Until the defensive area is addressed we are still going to lose many more games than we win, and I expect that we will still face a comfortable defeat against Hull on Sunday. A more realistic hope would be to compete and keep them to around 16 points.

I still believe that another coach will be best to improve the defensive structure of the squad but ironically this victory could end up putting Betts under more pressure in the medium term. Now, it's much harder to argue that the squad don't have the ability to compete and if we quickly go back to the old ways in the next couple of weeks, it could end up prompting his departure. However, it has certainly given him a reprieve for a few weeks at least and given him another opportunity to stake his claim. He's earned this at least.

It's been a difficult few weeks to be a Widnes fan, and whilst this one victory is not everything, it is certainly a relief. It will be good to be able to look forward to a game next weekend; to go back to defending the I-pitch instead of the team and to finally be able to write about something else on my blog!


Wednesday 7 March 2012

Would anybody want the Widnes job? Are there any suitable candidates?

I don't have a preference....
For anybody who has read my blog or anything I have subsequently written on a Rugby League forum, you would be well aware that I am in favour of Widnes sacking Denis Betts and preferably Paul Cullen from their positions at the club.

Some people inevitably reply and do not agree. This is their opinion and they have a right to do so, this isn't going to be another blog pointing out why we should sack Denis Betts, so if that's your bugbear you can stop reading now...

However, they often state that sacking Betts is not preferable because currently the job is unattractive and that there are a paucity of suitable candidates. I disagree with this for a number of reasons. Firstly, in this country there are only a handful of positions available as head coach of a Rugby League club. In fact, if your chosen career is coaching, there are only 14 opportunities at any one time to coach at the highest level in this country. Inevitably, this is financially more beneficial as well. This is magnified if you are British, with currently only 5 British coaches in Super League. Therefore, the opportunity to coach a top level side doesn't come up very often.

As for coaching Widnes, the candidate would have the rest of this year in which to build a squad in preparation for 2013. As most fans are aware of our poor recruitment this year, he would have the backing of the fans for its remainder. However, this is all well and good if there is nobody of any quality available to take the position.


Are there any suitable candidates?

Recently, we have seen a trend of some of the bigger clubs opting for relatively unknown Australian coaches, that have never had a head coaching job. I'm not doubting that there are some of these around, but I'm not going to focus on these. I'm going to focus purely on people that do not currently coach a top level side but that have prior experience as a successful coach in Super League. There are a surprising number of candidates with differing degrees of success.

British coaches


Brian Noble - Noble is easily the most high profile option and has naturally been linked with a number of jobs. His record speaks for itself with 3 Grand Final wins, and he was the national coach during our most successful recent phase. I was also impressed with his time at the Crusaders, where he guided a team that finished last in 2009 to the playoffs in 2010. He is currently out of the game.

John Kear - incredibly experienced coach, perhaps best remembered for his against-the-odds Challenge Cup victory in 1998 with Sheffield Eagles. Renowned for his ability to quickly turn a club around and performed well at Wakefield, leading them to the playoffs and a consistent mid-table finish. With the resources he had available, this is an excellent achievement. Currently at Batley.

Daryl Powell - has coached Super League at the very top level with some success. Has translated this to Featherstone, where he recently led them to the Championship title. May wish to stay on and try and get Featherstone into Super League.

Karl Harrison -  held the reigns for years at Salford. He was underrated by many but led them to the playoffs in 2006; their best season in recent times. Has since done a remarkable job at Batley with limited resources. Recently made Halifax coach.

Other coaches with Super League experience include Graham Steadman, Ellery HanleyJon Sharp and Neil Kelly.

Aside from Brian Noble and John Kear, none of these would be particularly popular choices. However, it is worth pointing out that they all have a better coaching record than Denis Betts.

Overseas coaches


Daniel Anderson - Has coached three clubs to a grand final, St Helens in England, New Zealand Warriors and Parramatta Eels in Australia. He has not had a head coaching job since 2010, but he was set to a coach Samoa last year, so he is still in the game.

Justin Morgan - Successful at Hull Kr, where he led them to promotion and then the playoffs in Super League. Would be familiar with our situation but has only recently left to become an assistant NRL coach at Canberra.

Matthew Elliot - Kick started the Bulls Super League success in the 90's. Has since continuously coached in the NRL at Canberra and Penrith. He largely struggled at these clubs but the NRL is very different to Super League and he may fancy a return to where he was most successful. Back to being an assistant coach at Sydney Roosters.

Stuart Raper - Had a successful time at Castleford, leading them to two top 5 finishes. Later moved to Wigan but was sacked after two 3rd place finishes. Struggled in the NRL with Cronulla and hasn't coached for 4 years. He is currently a sideline commentator in Australia.

Chris Anderson - Great record as a coach, coaching 3 teams to championship successes: Halifax, Melbourne Storm and Canterbury Bulldogs. He also coached the Australian Kangaroos. Turns 60 next year which may be too old.

Other notable mentions - Shaun McRae, Terry Matterson, and Kevin Walters.

Conclusion

In my opinion, there are a number of candidates here that would do a better job than what we currently have. However, as I stated, this is simply a list of those that are not in a head coach position but have previously coached Super League with success. This doesn't factor in: current Super League coaches; current NRL coaches; previous NRL coaches; assistant coaches or successful Championship coaches for instance. Who would ever have considered that Huddersfield would convince Nathan Brown to coach them?

It is of course worth pointing out, that it is not so straight forward as presuming that any of these coaches would want the job but I think there are enough options to suspect that we would get a high quality replacement. If Steve O'Connor decides not to sack Betts, then that is his choice, but I hope that it is not done because of some ill-conceived notion that there is nobody else out there to do the job.  

Monday 5 March 2012

The worst Super League side ever?

The nightmare continues
Another day, another shocking defeat. Well, I say shocking but I did predict a 34 point victory on the Super League facebook predictor. I think the fact that we were nilled and still comfortably beaten in horrendous conditions was the worst aspect.

As per usual, I went on the TotalRL forums to discuss the games and found one comment by the user HKR AWAY DAYS. He said that:

"I Tweeted last night that Widnes are the worst team I've seen in Super League."


It's easy to get defensive but the poster then respectfully said that Widnes are a club he has a lot of time for and he doesn't like to see it. I originally thought that it was a slight over-reaction; after all it's easy to forget some of the shocking teams that have graced this stage. Still, I thought I'd look into the facts.



Are Widnes the worst Super League side ever?

In looking for the worst Super League side, I decided to look at a number of factors. First of all and perhaps most obviously is win percentage; how many games each side has won. Widnes are of course disadvantaged  in this aspect by having played only 5 SL games so far. Secondly, I decided to look at the average number of points scored and conceded. This then gives an average margin of defeat in the league. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number for ease of viewing.

The opposition
Two main contenders came to mind when I started this were 2 sides that Widnes met in our last outing in Super League; the Leigh side from 2005 that were relegated alongside us, and the Halifax side from 2003 that were suffering huge financial problems. Here are their records:


In 2003 Halifax had a record of 1-27 (3.6%) and on average lost 13-44 (31)

In 2005 Leigh had a record of 2-1-25 (7%) and on average lost 16-43 (27)

As you can see both had poor records. There have been others as well that competed whilst Widnes have not been in SL. The 3 worst were Celtic Crusaders in 2009, Huddersfield's 1998 team and Workington in 1996:

In 1996 Workington had a record of 2-1-19 (9%) and on average lost 15-46 (31)

In 1998 Huddersfield had a record of 2-21 (8.6%) and on average lost 13-36 (23)

In 2009 Celtic had a record of 3-27 (10%) and on average lost 13-32 (19)

On balance the worst side here is the Halifax side, with the lowest number of wins and the joint worst points difference with Workington. However, when you don't round the figures, Workington's points record is slightly worse with an actual difference of 31.63, which would then be rounded to 32. Halifax's actual record is 30.52, which only just rounds to 31.

Our record
Obviously, as we have yet to register a win we have a record of 0% wins. This is of course unfair and we would have to register just 1 win in the next 23 games to equal the record of Halifax. This is our points difference record so far,

We have an average record of 11-43 (32).

So the margin is the same as Workington's. However when we again don't round the figures, we actually have the worst record with a points difference of 32.4. So, the conclusion is that were we to continue this form across the season, we would be statistically the worst side to ever grace Super League. This to me, is a shocking conclusion.

Statistically the worst, but the actual worst?
There is a long time to go in the season before Widnes can be deemed the worst ever Super League side. Undoubtedly we have made a terrible start, but this means that there is considerable room for improvement. Perhaps most worryingly, the evidence doesn't suggest this this is likely with clubs that struggle. Halifax posted their only win very early in the season and ran clubs like Leeds and Castleford close in their first few games; Leigh put up some good performances against Warrington and Wakefield before getting their first genuine beating after 6 games of the season, admittedly they improved later on. The Crusaders side of 2009 held St Helens to 4 points early on and ran clubs like Hull and Salford close. Perhaps the only start as bad as ours amongst these clubs is with Workington but even they picked up points in their 6th match. We have only competed in 1 game so far and still ended up losing by 18 points.

That said, I don't think that we will end up as the worst side Super League has ever seen. We do have new players coming in there is certainly a huge scope for improvement. Perhaps the biggest factor will be if we do replace coaches and then turn things around. They aren't likely to change soon though, as Wigan on Sunday will probably see our record worsen.

The solution?
So far this season the comments have been about how we need to be realistic with our expectations and how it will take time to learn. I have posted before that I don't agree with this line of reasoning, many clubs have done better than we have and these stats show that in fact we have done worse than anybody else has in the history of Super League. Whilst these figures may even provide comfort to Betts and O'Connor, it's worth pointing out that a number of these clubs were either the result of huge financial problems or short turn-arounds to prepare a squad. We have had none of these issues and it isn't unrealistic to expect a club that can compete and pick up some wins. Currently, we are a laughing stock and are even making the whole licensing system look flawed.

The solution is easy; the excuses have to stop. Steve O'Connor needs to stop listening to Denis Betts and Paul Cullen and realise that they are not up to the job. Betts has no prior record to fall back on and with Cullen has created arguably the worst ever Super League squad. Giving something time is important but it is also foolish to give something time if it looks like it is failing as badly as this.