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| The nightmare continues |
As per usual, I went on the TotalRL forums to discuss the games and found one comment by the user HKR AWAY DAYS. He said that:
"I Tweeted last night that Widnes are the worst team I've seen in Super League."
It's easy to get defensive but the poster then respectfully said that Widnes are a club he has a lot of time for and he doesn't like to see it. I originally thought that it was a slight over-reaction; after all it's easy to forget some of the shocking teams that have graced this stage. Still, I thought I'd look into the facts.
Are Widnes the worst Super League side ever?
In looking for the worst Super League side, I decided to look at a number of factors. First of all and perhaps most obviously is win percentage; how many games each side has won. Widnes are of course disadvantaged in this aspect by having played only 5 SL games so far. Secondly, I decided to look at the average number of points scored and conceded. This then gives an average margin of defeat in the league. All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number for ease of viewing.
The opposition
Two main contenders came to mind when I started this were 2 sides that Widnes met in our last outing in Super League; the Leigh side from 2005 that were relegated alongside us, and the Halifax side from 2003 that were suffering huge financial problems. Here are their records:
In 2003 Halifax had a record of 1-27 (3.6%) and on average lost 13-44 (31)
In 2005 Leigh had a record of 2-1-25 (7%) and on average lost 16-43 (27)
As you can see both had poor records. There have been others as well that competed whilst Widnes have not been in SL. The 3 worst were Celtic Crusaders in 2009, Huddersfield's 1998 team and Workington in 1996:
In 1996 Workington had a record of 2-1-19 (9%) and on average lost 15-46 (31)
In 1998 Huddersfield had a record of 2-21 (8.6%) and on average lost 13-36 (23)
In 2009 Celtic had a record of 3-27 (10%) and on average lost 13-32 (19)
On balance the worst side here is the Halifax side, with the lowest number of wins and the joint worst points difference with Workington. However, when you don't round the figures, Workington's points record is slightly worse with an actual difference of 31.63, which would then be rounded to 32. Halifax's actual record is 30.52, which only just rounds to 31.
Our record
Obviously, as we have yet to register a win we have a record of 0% wins. This is of course unfair and we would have to register just 1 win in the next 23 games to equal the record of Halifax. This is our points difference record so far,
We have an average record of 11-43 (32).
So the margin is the same as Workington's. However when we again don't round the figures, we actually have the worst record with a points difference of 32.4. So, the conclusion is that were we to continue this form across the season, we would be statistically the worst side to ever grace Super League. This to me, is a shocking conclusion.
Statistically the worst, but the actual worst?
There is a long time to go in the season before Widnes can be deemed the worst ever Super League side. Undoubtedly we have made a terrible start, but this means that there is considerable room for improvement. Perhaps most worryingly, the evidence doesn't suggest this this is likely with clubs that struggle. Halifax posted their only win very early in the season and ran clubs like Leeds and Castleford close in their first few games; Leigh put up some good performances against Warrington and Wakefield before getting their first genuine beating after 6 games of the season, admittedly they improved later on. The Crusaders side of 2009 held St Helens to 4 points early on and ran clubs like Hull and Salford close. Perhaps the only start as bad as ours amongst these clubs is with Workington but even they picked up points in their 6th match. We have only competed in 1 game so far and still ended up losing by 18 points.
That said, I don't think that we will end up as the worst side Super League has ever seen. We do have new players coming in there is certainly a huge scope for improvement. Perhaps the biggest factor will be if we do replace coaches and then turn things around. They aren't likely to change soon though, as Wigan on Sunday will probably see our record worsen.
The solution?
So far this season the comments have been about how we need to be realistic with our expectations and how it will take time to learn. I have posted before that I don't agree with this line of reasoning, many clubs have done better than we have and these stats show that in fact we have done worse than anybody else has in the history of Super League. Whilst these figures may even provide comfort to Betts and O'Connor, it's worth pointing out that a number of these clubs were either the result of huge financial problems or short turn-arounds to prepare a squad. We have had none of these issues and it isn't unrealistic to expect a club that can compete and pick up some wins. Currently, we are a laughing stock and are even making the whole licensing system look flawed.
The solution is easy; the excuses have to stop. Steve O'Connor needs to stop listening to Denis Betts and Paul Cullen and realise that they are not up to the job. Betts has no prior record to fall back on and with Cullen has created arguably the worst ever Super League squad. Giving something time is important but it is also foolish to give something time if it looks like it is failing as badly as this.
The opposition
Two main contenders came to mind when I started this were 2 sides that Widnes met in our last outing in Super League; the Leigh side from 2005 that were relegated alongside us, and the Halifax side from 2003 that were suffering huge financial problems. Here are their records:
In 2003 Halifax had a record of 1-27 (3.6%) and on average lost 13-44 (31)
In 2005 Leigh had a record of 2-1-25 (7%) and on average lost 16-43 (27)
As you can see both had poor records. There have been others as well that competed whilst Widnes have not been in SL. The 3 worst were Celtic Crusaders in 2009, Huddersfield's 1998 team and Workington in 1996:
In 1996 Workington had a record of 2-1-19 (9%) and on average lost 15-46 (31)
In 1998 Huddersfield had a record of 2-21 (8.6%) and on average lost 13-36 (23)
In 2009 Celtic had a record of 3-27 (10%) and on average lost 13-32 (19)
On balance the worst side here is the Halifax side, with the lowest number of wins and the joint worst points difference with Workington. However, when you don't round the figures, Workington's points record is slightly worse with an actual difference of 31.63, which would then be rounded to 32. Halifax's actual record is 30.52, which only just rounds to 31.
Our record
Obviously, as we have yet to register a win we have a record of 0% wins. This is of course unfair and we would have to register just 1 win in the next 23 games to equal the record of Halifax. This is our points difference record so far,
We have an average record of 11-43 (32).
So the margin is the same as Workington's. However when we again don't round the figures, we actually have the worst record with a points difference of 32.4. So, the conclusion is that were we to continue this form across the season, we would be statistically the worst side to ever grace Super League. This to me, is a shocking conclusion.
Statistically the worst, but the actual worst?
There is a long time to go in the season before Widnes can be deemed the worst ever Super League side. Undoubtedly we have made a terrible start, but this means that there is considerable room for improvement. Perhaps most worryingly, the evidence doesn't suggest this this is likely with clubs that struggle. Halifax posted their only win very early in the season and ran clubs like Leeds and Castleford close in their first few games; Leigh put up some good performances against Warrington and Wakefield before getting their first genuine beating after 6 games of the season, admittedly they improved later on. The Crusaders side of 2009 held St Helens to 4 points early on and ran clubs like Hull and Salford close. Perhaps the only start as bad as ours amongst these clubs is with Workington but even they picked up points in their 6th match. We have only competed in 1 game so far and still ended up losing by 18 points.
That said, I don't think that we will end up as the worst side Super League has ever seen. We do have new players coming in there is certainly a huge scope for improvement. Perhaps the biggest factor will be if we do replace coaches and then turn things around. They aren't likely to change soon though, as Wigan on Sunday will probably see our record worsen.
The solution?
So far this season the comments have been about how we need to be realistic with our expectations and how it will take time to learn. I have posted before that I don't agree with this line of reasoning, many clubs have done better than we have and these stats show that in fact we have done worse than anybody else has in the history of Super League. Whilst these figures may even provide comfort to Betts and O'Connor, it's worth pointing out that a number of these clubs were either the result of huge financial problems or short turn-arounds to prepare a squad. We have had none of these issues and it isn't unrealistic to expect a club that can compete and pick up some wins. Currently, we are a laughing stock and are even making the whole licensing system look flawed.
The solution is easy; the excuses have to stop. Steve O'Connor needs to stop listening to Denis Betts and Paul Cullen and realise that they are not up to the job. Betts has no prior record to fall back on and with Cullen has created arguably the worst ever Super League squad. Giving something time is important but it is also foolish to give something time if it looks like it is failing as badly as this.
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